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The Housing Market Will Likely Cool in 2023: What Does That Mean for Affordability?

Predictions are circulating about the housing market in 2023. Could this be the year of increased affordability, allowing more individuals to become homeowners? Despite a cooling off of the housing market, many are still unable to find affordable homes, as suggested in the most recent report from real estate data firm ATTOM.

According to the company’s fourth-quarter 2022 US Home Affordability Report, median-priced single family homes and condos have become less affordable in nearly every region of America than ever before. Prices were higher than average in 99 percent of U.S. counties by 2022, a sharp rise from 68 percent just one year prior!

Homes Prices Increases and Becomes Less Affordable

According to the report, Collin County suffered a significant decrease in its affordability index throughout the fourth quarter. The affordability index is an average of how much one’s income should cover when paying for a 30-year mortgage and any anticipated housing costs. This number has risen significantly to 50 over the past year—an increase of 20 points!

Compounding the problem, according to the report, is that most lenders still find it difficult for people to pay for a home with the average wages.

Nationally, the average percentage of a person’s pay that goes towards mortgage and housing expenses is an astounding 32.3%. This figure has seen tremendous growth since 2022 when it stood at near 30%, or 2021 when it was 23.8%. When looking locally to Dallas County specifically, 31.2% of earnings go toward mortgages; Tarrant county sees 37.4%; while Collin County takes the cake with 52.5%. These numbers are indicative that people are increasingly investing in their homes across America!

In over half of the 581 counties analyzed by ATTOM, annual home price appreciation has outstripped weekly wage growth – a staggering statistic that includes Dallas County.

2022 has seen home mortgage rates skyrocket to a staggering 7%, making the cost of owning a median priced house rise 10% in Q4, and nullifying any benefits from salary raises or price reductions.

“Prospective homebuyers – especially first-time buyers – can’t seem to catch a break,” said Rick Sharga, executive vice president of market intelligence at ATTOM. “For the past two years, home prices have appreciated in double digits, 15 to 20 percent a year in some markets. Now that home prices have plateaued and even declined in some markets, buyers are faced with mortgage rates that have doubled, making home purchases even less affordable.”

ATTOM’s findings were based on the median-priced single-family home with a 20 percent down payment and 28 percent maximum debt-to-income ratio. In order to determine how much income is necessary for all major expenses, including mortgage payments, property taxes, and insurance; ATTOM then compared that figure against wage data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. With this research in hand, prospective homeowners are now able to gain an understanding regarding their financial state before buying a house!

Although home sales have plummeted nationally, the same doesn’t hold true for our state or in local neighborhoods.

ATTOM’s report determined that Collin County had the most significant increase in median sales prices at 34%, while Hillsborough (FL), Miami-Dade (FL), St. Louis (MO) and Palm Beach Counties all reported 16%+ gains year over year for counties with populations of 1 million+.

The MetroTex Association of Realtors, which records local real estate transactions, has revealed that sales have dropped significantly in November. Transactions are down by 29% across the state and Texas now has a 2.9 month inventory rate compared to last year’s 1.4 months statistic. In other words, this is evidence of a tremendous decrease in sales over the past twelve months!

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